Mar 31 2011

Born to lose

Published by at 12:22 pm under Companies,More News,South Africa

I refer to this article I wrote on 14 July last year, when the share price of Naspers stood at R270. Earlier this month it broke through the R400 barrier. Since it has dropped down slightly. Still, most investors would be happy with a 48% gain in 9 months.

In the 14 July 2010 article I “suggested” the Naspers share price could be in for a nice climb. On 11 October (at R330) I said there was more in it (here). On 14 October (R361) I said there was still more in it. Now go to the Naspers site and click on the 1-year share price chart, and you’ll see no professional could have gotten his timing better than I did.

So, you made a lot of money? No. Not a cent. Why? Because I didn’t believe my own forecast. But, you’re so good at this, you are certain to see other opportunities soon? Wrong. This Naspers thing was pure luck. Sorry to say, but that’s how it is.

There’s more pain: when the Naspers share was at R25 in 2001 I had a few share options in an employee scheme. I gave them back when I emigrated to Germany in 2002. Only light in this tunnel: I can’t remember how many shares I had!


One response so far

One Response to “Born to lose”

  1. adminon 31 Mar 2011 at 12:37 pm

    Good thing I didn’t write this story tomorrow – you would have thought it was a joke.


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