South Africa got a very negative mention in the Financial Times Deutschland (FTD) this morning. The topic: the SA government’s intervention in private sector deals with foreign investors. The report speculates the international investor community might be close to the point where it strikes South Africa off its list of potential investment destinations.    [Read on]

Do you have money tied up in a B&B, or boutique hotel under-performing due to disappointing foreign tourist numbers to SA? Here lies the source of all your problems:

http://www.fin24.com/Markets/Commodities/Supply-fears-bolster-commodities-20110411

In case you can’t bring two and two together, the world’s hunger for the stuff SA’s mining sector produces, is holding the rand at levels it should long have waved goodbye to. In turn, that makes SA a far-too-expensive destination for the average European tourist.

Important: the difficulties encountered by SA’s tourism industry has nothing (or very little) to do with the industry and the players in the industry. It has to do with the rand and the authorities responsible for managing its level, ie. the SA Reservebank and (indirectly) the SA government.

If the rand was a true reflector of inflation differentials between SA and Europe, then it would today have moved in a band between R12 and R13 per euro. Not R9,70.

The global hunger for commodities is killing off SA’s export economy and its tourism sector.

The stalemate in the Armsgate saga, starring SA’s ex-president Thabo Mbeki and featuring bribes for arms, will only be broken from outside South Africa. That’s been my gut feel for a while. A report in today’s Financial Times Deutschland (FTD) raised my hopes in this regard. [Read on]

I refer to this article I wrote on 14 July last year, when the share price of Naspers stood at R270. Earlier this month it broke through the R400 barrier. Since it has dropped down slightly. Still, most investors would be happy with a 48% gain in 9 months.

In the 14 July 2010 article I “suggested” the Naspers share price could be in for a nice climb. On 11 October (at R330) I said there was more in it (here). On 14 October (R361) I said there was still more in it. Now go to the Naspers site and click on the 1-year share price chart, and you’ll see no professional could have gotten his timing better than I did.

So, you made a lot of money? No. Not a cent. Why? Because I didn’t believe my own forecast. But, you’re so good at this, you are certain to see other opportunities soon? Wrong. This Naspers thing was pure luck. Sorry to say, but that’s how it is.

There’s more pain: when the Naspers share was at R25 in 2001 I had a few share options in an employee scheme. I gave them back when I emigrated to Germany in 2002. Only light in this tunnel: I can’t remember how many shares I had!

I get the impression South Africa is finally waking up to the internet. It took so long, I wrote the country off as “essentially non-digital” in 2009 (here and here). But, I might have been wrong – there may still be (digital) life down there after all.  [Read on]

The luxury hotel Arabella Cape between Kleinmond and Hermanus has found a buyer. An announcement will be made once a few outstanding issues have been clarified, I heard through the grapevine. (For background read article below.)

It’s been a good few weeks for the Hemel-en-Aarde Valley wine estate Hermanuspietersfontein (HPF). First the news that one of its wines got a 5-star rating in the latest Platter Guide and then the news that its winemaker (and co-shareholder) Bartho Eksteen had been named 2010 Diners Club Winemaker of the Year. [Read on]

At last, someone (in the industry) has had the guts to say what should have been said a long time ago: SA sits on a property price bubble. [Read on]